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World View: The promise and the peril

Mitchell Reiss — the former president and CEO of the Colonial Williamsburg Foundation, and before that, director of the Reves Center for International Studies and vice-provost for International Affairs at the College of William and Mary — was asked by Spectator, the prestigious British journal, to write a review about Henry Kissinger’s latest book, “Genesis: Artificial Intelligence, Hope and the Human Spirit.”

It was Kissinger’s last book, before he passed away at age 100. He wrote the book in collaboration with Erik Schmidt, former CEO of Google, and Craig Muncie, the former chief research and strategy officer at Microsoft.

“They have created a holistic analysis of the social, political, psychological and even spiritual impacts a superior machine intelligence would have for humanity,” Reiss writes.

Reiss’ review of Kissinger’s book is augmented by his multiple personal contacts with Kissinger. While Kissinger served as chancellor of the College of William and Mary from 2000 to 2005, Reiss was director of the Reves Center for International Studies and vice-provost for International Affairs at the college. They have frequent contacts.

Reiss review of “Genesis” begins with noting, “Is this what it felt like in the months before August 1914? Or during the years leading up to September 1939?”

“The discussions about artificial intelligence (AI) produces a deep foreboding that we are in the grip of forces largely beyond our control, and we are sleepwalking toward disaster?” he writes.

Reiss then explains that people are broadly familiar with AI’s current and future benefits. Namely that this machine can process massive amounts of data at unnerving speed. They can select their own goals, learn from their errors, update their algorithm and design things that no human has ever imagined before. Some scientists predict, Reiss asserts, that these machines may soon achieve “sentience” demonstrating the elements of human consciousness, memory, imagination and self-awareness.

AI is already demonstrating benefits across business and medicine. Especially cancer screening, drug developments and clinical trials. AI is also performing human tasks, like booking holidays, deciding mortgage eligibility and helping determine criminal justice decisions. AI may even help find solutions to intractable global problems like climate change, the transition to clean energy, global poverty and conflict between nations.

Downsides, Reiss notes, are evident. AI will disrupt job markets, causing unemployment, especially among lesser-skilled white-collar workers. AI is also turbocharging the spread of misinformation, with more than 70 countries already using technology to undermine democratic institutions and civic cohesion.

What especially worries Reiss is that leaders and countries may forfeit control over decision-making over the choice of waging war or negotiating peace.

Reiss, served as chief U.S. negotiator with North Korea, with the aim of shutting down that country’s nuclear weapons program, and later served as U.S. presidential envoy, with the rank of ambassador, to the North Ireland Peace negotiation.

Reiss notes that “Genesis” is at its most interesting when it imagines how states might overcome their mutual hostility and suspicion and cooperate to control this new force.

“An abiding focus of Kissinger’s life work was the intersection between technology and public policy, starting with his writings in the 1950s on nuclear weapons,” Reiss states. “He knew that technology alone could not overcome mistrust among states, curb human ambitions or eliminate bad actors. And yet, through a combination of thoughtful action and luck, a nuclear holocaust was avoided.

Kissinger devoted his final years of life to bringing China and the U.S. together to negotiate a pathway forward on AI. His last book stands as both an impassioned warning and an urgent challenge.”

Shatz is a Williamsburg resident. He is the author of “Reports from a Distant Place,” the compilation of his selected columns.

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